Johnson hosts information day on PRA for oil and gas
2018-03-28
What does NASA have to offer the oil and gas industry in regards to risk calculation and management? A lot, it turns out.
NASA developed Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a tool for calculating the chances of low-probability, high-consequence events during the Space Shuttle Program. PRA ties all of the connections between design, operations and human reliability into a master logic flow to highlight potential areas for safety improvements.
Is one of these things like the other? Yes, in more ways than one. From left, an oil rig and the International Space Station.
On March 1, more than 60 representatives from many different oil and gas companies gathered in downtown Houston for a presentation about PRA. Members of Shell Oil Company, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and many other organizations mingled before settling into a conference room with their host: NASA Johnson Space Center's Safety and Mission Assurance.
“PRA systematically connects all of the intricate pieces of one big structure in a way that no human mind could possibly understand,” said Business Development Manager David Kaplan with Johnson’s Safety and Mission Assurance.
For the past couple of years, through Kaplan’s efforts, NASA has been working closely with Anadarko and Shell to apply PRA to their offshore drilling operations. Maybe somewhat surprisingly, there are remarkable similarities between working on the International Space Station and an offshore drilling operation.
Both are incredibly complex engineering structures. They are isolated—even inaccessible, at times. Whether it’s the deep ocean or deep space, workers are often forced to conduct hazardous operations in harsh and uncompromising environments. Both systems require constant maintenance, detailed choreography of crew and supply delivery and, sometimes, creative problem solving.
Most importantly, however, is that mission failure in each case can mean catastrophe—resulting in either the deaths of many or the destruction of the environment.
In 2016, NASA and BSEE entered a five-year interagency agreement to further develop PRA for the oil and gas industry. Additionally, both Anadarko and Shell have entered Space Act Agreements with Johnson to apply the PRA model to some of their projects, such as deep-water wells and blowout preventers.
“Even though we know we can’t eliminate risk, we can learn how to manage risk,” said Ken Dupal, delivery manager for Shell. “This tool brings folks together to look at things in an objective manner and then lay out what we think the pros and cons are.”
Bringing people together is perhaps the most unexpected, yet most valuable benefit that PRA provides. For both NASA and the oil and gas industry, each maintains a culture of different groups of people working separately on the same project.
“Whether we are engineers, operators or managers, we tend to build silos around ourselves,” said Johnson’s Analysis Branch Chief Roger Boyer. “PRAs bring all of the right people in a room together to talk about risk.”
Being able to mathematically demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of a complex system, PRA invites different parties to sit at the table and ask each other questions. These discussions can break down the degrees of separation within a project.
“At first, I was skeptical of what our working relationship would be like with NASA,” said Anadarko’s Senior Drilling Engineering Advisor Gregory Walz. “However, after our experience, I have no problems working with NASA in the future. I want to compliment the men and women I worked with for their exceptional teamwork, punctuality and work ethic.”
Although BSEE has no plans for making PRA a regulatory requirement, the industry may benefit from entering a Joint Industry Partnership to share PRA tools and information, allowing industry partners to share data and make PRA more easily accessible and adaptable.
Doug Morris, chief of Offshore Regulatory Programs for BSEE, ended the day with an uplifting message of possible future collaboration: “We have a lot more work to do. The key moving forward is working together.”
Thalia Patrinos
NASA Johnson Space Center
NASA developed Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a tool for calculating the chances of low-probability, high-consequence events during the Space Shuttle Program. PRA ties all of the connections between design, operations and human reliability into a master logic flow to highlight potential areas for safety improvements.
Is one of these things like the other? Yes, in more ways than one. From left, an oil rig and the International Space Station.
On March 1, more than 60 representatives from many different oil and gas companies gathered in downtown Houston for a presentation about PRA. Members of Shell Oil Company, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and many other organizations mingled before settling into a conference room with their host: NASA Johnson Space Center's Safety and Mission Assurance.
“PRA systematically connects all of the intricate pieces of one big structure in a way that no human mind could possibly understand,” said Business Development Manager David Kaplan with Johnson’s Safety and Mission Assurance.
For the past couple of years, through Kaplan’s efforts, NASA has been working closely with Anadarko and Shell to apply PRA to their offshore drilling operations. Maybe somewhat surprisingly, there are remarkable similarities between working on the International Space Station and an offshore drilling operation.
Both are incredibly complex engineering structures. They are isolated—even inaccessible, at times. Whether it’s the deep ocean or deep space, workers are often forced to conduct hazardous operations in harsh and uncompromising environments. Both systems require constant maintenance, detailed choreography of crew and supply delivery and, sometimes, creative problem solving.
Most importantly, however, is that mission failure in each case can mean catastrophe—resulting in either the deaths of many or the destruction of the environment.
In 2016, NASA and BSEE entered a five-year interagency agreement to further develop PRA for the oil and gas industry. Additionally, both Anadarko and Shell have entered Space Act Agreements with Johnson to apply the PRA model to some of their projects, such as deep-water wells and blowout preventers.
“Even though we know we can’t eliminate risk, we can learn how to manage risk,” said Ken Dupal, delivery manager for Shell. “This tool brings folks together to look at things in an objective manner and then lay out what we think the pros and cons are.”
Bringing people together is perhaps the most unexpected, yet most valuable benefit that PRA provides. For both NASA and the oil and gas industry, each maintains a culture of different groups of people working separately on the same project.
“Whether we are engineers, operators or managers, we tend to build silos around ourselves,” said Johnson’s Analysis Branch Chief Roger Boyer. “PRAs bring all of the right people in a room together to talk about risk.”
Being able to mathematically demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of a complex system, PRA invites different parties to sit at the table and ask each other questions. These discussions can break down the degrees of separation within a project.
“At first, I was skeptical of what our working relationship would be like with NASA,” said Anadarko’s Senior Drilling Engineering Advisor Gregory Walz. “However, after our experience, I have no problems working with NASA in the future. I want to compliment the men and women I worked with for their exceptional teamwork, punctuality and work ethic.”
Although BSEE has no plans for making PRA a regulatory requirement, the industry may benefit from entering a Joint Industry Partnership to share PRA tools and information, allowing industry partners to share data and make PRA more easily accessible and adaptable.
Doug Morris, chief of Offshore Regulatory Programs for BSEE, ended the day with an uplifting message of possible future collaboration: “We have a lot more work to do. The key moving forward is working together.”
Thalia Patrinos
NASA Johnson Space Center
Roger Boyer, Safety and Mission Assurance Analysis Branch chief with NASA's Johnson Space Center, describes PRA to members of the oil and gas industry. Image courtesy of Thalia Patrinos.